Recent climate outlooks expect this fall to be warmer and dryer than usual, preparing Iowans for a colder winter.

State Climatologist Dr. Justin Glisan tells Raccoon Valley Radio the most recent 90-day outlook shows signs of warmer temperatures through autumn. As we move towards the winter months, Glisan says the latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation forecast shows our area is showing a high probability of transitioning into El Niña conditions, which indicates the possibility of a colder winter. In the short term, Glisan expects dry conditions to continue, “Right now, if you look at our short-term outlooks, there is a suggestion that, at least in the short-term, late-September – early-October timeframe, dryer than normal conditions are expected. Now that doesn’t suggest that we’re not going to get any rainfall, but what it does say is that the longer-term forecast model are picking up on a circulation feature that would suggest dryer conditions will take hold.”

Glisan adds that fall predictions are a stark contrast from 2018 and 2019 when conditions were wetter than average.