The stock market hasn’t been looking too good recently, but one local economist thinks it may turn around.

Tim Heisterkamp with Journey Financial says the year that immediately follows a midterm election has historically been a very positive year for the country’s economy.

“I believe since 1938 we’ve averaged about 11-percent in the stock market in the year after the midterm election. So I think if that happens and if history repeats itself the stock market could be pretty good. But that said, we still need good growth in the economy and if the economy were to slow down or start pointing to a recession, maybe we don’t see that good year we generally expect after a midterm election happens.”

Heisterkamp points out the yield curve is one area to watch if it inverts or flattens out because that could be an indicator for a possible recession.

“So for an example, the two year treasury is paying a 2.8-percent (interest rate), the ten year is 2.9(-percent interest rate). So when you see the yield curve flatten out like that it should be a lot steeper. In other words, the ten year treasury should be paying a lot higher than the two year. So whenever that yield curve flattens out or inverts that generally points to a recession.”

Heisterkamp feels confident that the market will bounce back and one of the major driving factors will be when the trade negotiations are finalized with China.